Sales Forecasting System - How to Become Best In Class

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AI for Pipeline Management

& Sales Forecasting

TopOPPS

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St. Charles MO 63301

Foundation of an Accurate

Sales Forecast

How AI is Changing the Game

Content in this guidebook was generated by SiriusDecisions™ and TopOPPS via

the webinar, Time to End the Forecast Games.

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Welcome!

This guidebook was generated after the webinar, Time to

End the Forecast Games, with Dana Thierren from SiriusDecisions

™

April 18, 2018. We reviewed the foundation of an accurate sales forecast
and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing the forecasting game. In
this guidebook, we discuss in detail the foundation of an accurate sales
forecast as developed by the team at SiriusDecisions and then illustrate
how artificial intelligence changes how sales teams operate on a daily
basis.

We’ll explore the four pillars that support a traditional sales forecast, the
challenges inherent to each and then explain how AI can fundamentally
improve the operation of sales organizations, generating better
outcomes for sales representatives and sales leadership. Let’s get
started!

The Foundations of an
Accurate Sales Forecast

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Opportunity Amount

The Foundations of an Accurate Sales Forecast

Forecasting uses tools and processes to provide forward-looking sales projections,
creating a sense of urgency to drive time-bound results. The traditional forecasting
model includes four foundational elements:

●

Opportunity Amount

●

Sales Stage

●

Closed Date

●

Forecast Category

Each of these elements plays a critical role in forecasting and is required to build an
accurate forecast. As we review each one, the subjective nature of current
forecasting becomes clear. Last year was one of the most exciting years for sales
technologies because we can now eliminate some of the subjectivity and begin
forecasting based on complete data in the CRM and actual sales results.

The opportunity amount is defined as the value of
each opportunity record that provides the basis of the
forecast amount.

There are a variety of products and services that need
to be captured accurately in the opportunity amount
to ensure an accurate forecast. These include:

●

Perpetual products (licenses, hardware,
software)

●

Subscription based products (term
subscriptions, usage-based subscriptions,
outcome-based subscriptions)

Splits, defined as when multiple quote carrying team
members are involved in a single opportunity, also
need to be accurately captured to ensure the correct
quota allotment for all team members.

An organization with multiple revenue streams must
partner with their finance team to ensure the
opportunity amount is being captured and reported
accurately to ensure an accurate forecast.

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Sales Stage

Closed Date

Closed Date is the anticipated date for a final
buying decision.

The Closed Date is a key element that sales
leaders routinely inspect to determine if the
opportunity is going to close on the date
recorded in the CRM or even if it will close at all.

Because the Closed Date can sometimes be
based on when a rep feels the opportunity will
close, Closed Date is a difficult variable to
accurately quantify.

Sales stage is the opportunity’s location in the sales
process that aligns with the buyer’s journey. We’ll
talk a bit more about the buyer journey on the next
page.

Based on research by SiriusDecisions, the most
common number of sales stages is six. While many
companies may have more process stages, it is
important that these processes not be
overcomplicated. Too many processes can
sometimes lead to a difficult and confusing
assignment process and may not accurately mirror
the buyer journey. Key to successful sales stage
assignment is consistency and agreement upon the
criteria that determine where an opportunity
should be assigned in the buying journey

The identification of a successful sales stage
process allows the organization to accurately
predict how long it actually takes to close an
opportunity.

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Forecast Category

Forecast category is the salesperson’s
confidence indicator of the buyer’s likelihood to
make an affirmative purchasing decision by the
closed date.

Forecast Categories are traditionally those that
come included in the CRM: pipeline omit, best
case, commit and closed. Limiting the number
of Forecast Categories will ensure that reps
clearly understand where deals should be
classified and help to build a more accurate
forecast.

These four elements help sales
organizations build forecasts.

Now that a sales leader has the
information, the art and guesswork
of forecasting begins. Leaders rely
on rep intuition, previous
performance and experience with
sometimes a little hope thrown in
to create a forecast to share with
the organization.

Now, let’s dive into the importance
of aligning your sales process to the
forecast and how AI and
automation are changing
forecasting forever.

It also may not be advisable to ask sales reps for probabilities. Probabilities are
best used by Sales Operations leaders when putting together the overall
forecast and are able to make assumptions about the pipeline overall. Accurate
Forecast Categories will yield better results for probability determination at the
leadership level.

The Foundations of an Accurate
Sales Forecast

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The SiriusDecisions Attribute Based Sales Process

Before we move on to the impact artificial intelligence and automation are
having on sales organizations, we wanted to discuss the Attribute Based Sales
Process developed by SiriusDecisions and how it helps sales organizations
develop an accurate forecast.

Organizations that focus closely on the data signals available to them based on
behaviors exhibited by prospects and customers are able to correctly define
the length of the sales cycle as well as the underlying stages that make up the
buyer journey. Aligning the sales process to the buying process gives both sales
and marketing teams a clear understanding of what defines each stage in the
process and the appropriate prospect message. This understanding combined
with the automated activity matching provided by an AI platform will improve
forecast accuracy.

A strong sales process positions sales teams for success. For additional
information, check out the Sales Process Evaluation Guidebook developed by
the TopOPPS team available

here

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You’ve optimized your sales process, executed all four foundational elements
of the forecast to ensure all the steps were covered and now your forecast will
be on target, right? Unfortunately, developing an accurate forecast remains
problematic largely because of the game all sales reps and managers are
forced to play.

There are three main drivers of forecast inaccuracies:

What causes an inaccurate forecast?

Insufficient Data in the CRM

Mass updates vs. 1 opp at a time (turn to
spreadsheet)

Reps delay entry

Reps fail to enter any information

Inconsistent process

Stages and milestones are not consistent
across the organization

Commits and upside are not updated

Gut estimate on planning

Conversion rates of booked meetings,
Qualified Leads, Qualified Opps are all
inaccurate without sufficient data in the CRM

Analyzing cohorts with win rates is also
off-target due to data gaps and
inconsistencies

<37%

According to recent surveys of sales
organizations, less than 37% of sales reps
actually use the CRM.

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How do automation and AI improve
forecasting?

INFORMATION &

QUALIFICATION

AUTOMATED CRM UPDATES
Notes, Meetings, Emails, Calls, Contacts,
Roles, etc.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Automated interpretation and clarification of
context on notes and emails for scoring
opportunities and leads

Some sales enablement tools and platforms are now able to capture rep
activities and will automatically update the Opportunity in the CRM with this
information. These real-time updates increase the amount of data available to
reps, managers and leaders, improving decision-making and surfacing top
opportunities for immediate attention.

The second element of Information and Qualification is sentiment analysis.
Central to any pipeline management and forecasting tool is the programming
necessary to interpret the value of the increased data in the CRM. As you’ll see
later, the TopOPPS platform uses a proprietary HealthScore to assess key
opportunity metrics including likelihood to close to accurately analyze
sentiment.

Platforms that execute pipeline analysis and forecasting also use this data to
power their algorithms.

Happily, automation of CRM updates is well received by sales reps. By using
technology to automate repetitive data capture, reps are freed to work on the
deals and tasks that will drive the business forward.

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SALES PROCESS

CONSISTENCY

SALES PROCESS ENFORCEMENT
Automated and prompted with guided
insights

PIPELINE HYGIENE
Consistent sales process, automated
updates and insights result in accurate
pipeline

MACHINE LEARNING

& DATA SCIENCE

HIGH PROBABILITY LEADS &
OPPORTUNITIES
Focus on the right prospects and
customers

CONSISTENT & DYNAMIC
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
Data is accurate and consistent to
analyze – the forecast recalculates daily

As reviewed earlier, ensuring that all reps and managers understand the steps
of the process and consistently use the same definitions can be challenging.
Sales enablement solutions automate and prompt the defined steps of the
sales process, ensuring that all stages are defined and measured using the
same criteria across the organization.

The most exciting advancement comes in this final explanation of how
automation and AI improve forecasting. Because the data in the CRM is now
complete and up-to-date and everyone in the organization is adhering to the
correct sales process stages and definitions, AI can now interpret
characteristics of different sales rep styles, recommend next steps on key
deals, provide insights into the health of the pipeline and accurately forecast
sales revenue.

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Transitioning From Sales Forecasting to
Sales Intelligence

“In 2017, providers of artificial intelligence forecasting solutions, in their quest
to gather more powerful data signals to enhance their algorithms, expanded
their influence. They simplified opportunity management, activity tracking,
sales process adherence, and persona and sentiment intelligence gathering for
marketing, deal review and sales coaching, increasing their accuracy and
decreasing their measurement effort.

This is the sales intelligence big bang we’ve all been waiting for! We are now
able to gather intelligence seamlessly and automatically which turns CRM Data
into insights that improve the outcomes for sales people.”

Dana Therrien, SiriusDecisions

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Why is TopOPPS the AI solution for your
organization?

Current State

TopOPPS AI Forecasting Solution

Insufficient Data

●

Lost rep time
updating CRM

●

Delayed entry

●

No entry

Clean data and a 400% increase in
CRM data

●

Automated updates

●

Sentiment analysis

●

Rep assistant

Inconsistent Process

●

Subjective

●

Personal
interpretations

Process automation

●

Suggestions/reminders

●

Guided Winning Strategies

Gut estimate – planning

●

Pipeline clutter

●

Lost time digging
for data

Machine learning insights

●

A trusted pipeline and forecast

●

Information brought to the
surface for immediate action

With decades of experience managing and leading sales teams and working
with other companies to help them evolve into leading sales organizations, the
TopOPPS team has experienced all of the pain points outlined here first hand.
Our platform was built to improve the life of a sales rep by automating data
capture and eliminating the need for constant conversations about the status
of a deal!

The future state provided by the platform and insight into our award-winning
software on the following pages gives a sample of how TopOPPS solves the
challenges presented by the forecasting game and a few of the benefits
provided to our customers.

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Ensures a Winning & Consistent Sales Process

Adds Context to the Pipeline & Forecast

TopOPPS guides reps to ensure a consistent

sales process, clean pipeline hygiene and

helps win more deals – just click on the

action to approve the change or

recommendation. Also available in mobile.

We hope you found this guidebook valuable on the foundations of sales
forecasting and how AI is changing the forecasting game in today’s sales

organizations. If you’d like to speak with a sales representative, please contact us

at (877) 737-7976 or send us an email at info@topopps.com.

Automatic updates from email and calendar

meetings [plus sentiment analysis] to show

momentum of opportunity.

TopOPPS
(877) 737-7976

About TopOPPS

Our mission is to provide more confidence in the
sales forecast with artificial intelligence that enables
pipeline visibility, intelligently prescribes a
consistent sales process, automatically captures
information about deals, and guides reps with
winning behaviors to execute and managers with
insights for meaningful coaching.

Jim Eberlin

CEO, TopOPPS

Jim is the founder and CEO of TopOPPS. Prior to TopOPPS, Jim
founded two Silicon Valley market leaders, Gainsight (#48 on
Inc. 5000) and Host Analytics (market leader for cloud-based
finance). TopOPPS is a sales pipeline management and
forecast predictability solution that uses artificial intelligence
to bring clarity to the sales pipeline, accuracy to the forecast,
and alignment to the sales process. Jim is a serial
entrepreneur and has several years experience in the
software industry.

Dana Therrien

Service Director, Sales Operations Strategies, SiriusDecisions

Dana is a senior sales operations leader with over 25 years of
sales and sales operations experience that he has brought to
SiriusDecisions. He is a forward-thinking leader with a record
of driving results, increasing sales effectiveness and improving
sales productivity while supporting global, multi-million dollar
sales growth. His experience includes cloud, SAAS, managed
services, managed hosting and traditional product based
sales. Prior to joining SiriusDecisions, Dana held global sales
operations roles at Times Warner Cable most recently in Paris.